Learn from Your Decisions
The Process Principle
When evaluating a decision, focus on the process you used to make the decision, not the outcome. Conventional wisdom suggests that good outcomes result from good decisions, and bad outcomes from bad decisions. But this isn't always the case. We've all made bad decisions that turned out well, and good decisions that had unexpected, unfortunate results.
The quality of a single decision isn't determined by the quality of the outcome. Our tendency to equate the two is called resulting - using the results as an indicator of the decision's quality. If things go as planned, we think we made a good decision. If not, we blame external factors. But this is flawed logic.
Making a good decision is about the process, not the outcome. One bad outcome doesn't make you a poor decision-maker, just like one good outcome doesn't make you a genius. You have to examine your reasoning at the time to truly judge the quality of the decision.
The Transparency Principle
The second principle for evaluating your decisions is to make your decision-making process as visible and open to scrutiny as possible.
Evaluating other people's decisions is different from evaluating our own. We rarely see their intentions, thinking, or process, so we judge based on outcomes alone. But when it comes to our own decisions, we have the advantage of first-hand insight into the process itself.
Step 1
Examine your thinking, distinguish what was within your control from what wasn't, and what you knew at the time versus what you know now.
Step 2
Take what you've learned and apply it to improve your process for next time.
The problem is, we often don't stop to reflect. And when we do look back, our ego distorts our memories, confusing what we know now with what we knew then. This makes it hard to learn from our decisions.
If you want to learn from your decisions, you need to make the invisible thought process as visible and open to scrutiny as possible. Don't rely on fallible memory - record your thinking at the time you made the decision.
Writing It Down
Keeping a written record of your thoughts offers several key benefits:
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It provides information about your thought process at the time. This makes the invisible visible, helping you accurately answer questions like "What did I know then?" and "Did things happen as I expected?"
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It helps you realize when you don't understand something as well as you thought. This is invaluable - it's far better to discover gaps in your knowledge before making a decision.
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It allows others to review and check your thinking for errors or blind spots. If you can't clearly explain your reasoning, it's a sign you need to dig deeper.
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It creates a database of decision-making that others can learn from. Imagine the value of a searchable catalog of decisions in an organization - it would allow people to learn from each other's processes.
So make a habit of recording your thoughts, assumptions, and reasoning when faced with an important decision. Don't rely on fallible memory later. The more visible you can make your decision-making, the more you can learn from it.
Avoiding Analysis Paralysis
While documenting your process is important, you also need to know when to stop gathering information and start acting. Analysis paralysis is a common trap.
The right amount of information is the minimum required to make a good decision, not the maximum you can possibly gather.
Here are some signs you've gathered enough information:
- You can argue credibly for and against the options from all angles
- You're reaching out to people more than one step removed from the problem, not gaining new insights
- You feel like you need to learn more, but you're just repeating the same information/arguments
At a certain point, more information stops improving your decision and instead just breeds overconfidence. You have to learn to recognize when you've reached that point and it's time to act.
Measuring Success
When evaluating a decision in hindsight, don't just look at the outcome. Instead, use this framework:
Good process, good outcome: You made a sound decision and got the results you wanted. Keep up the good work.
Good process, bad outcome: You made a good decision but got unlucky. Don't get discouraged - trust the process and keep improving.
Bad process, good outcome: You got lucky with a poor decision. Don't let this go to your head - change while you can.
Bad process, bad outcome: You made a bad decision and deserve the failure. Let this be a wake-up call to improve your decision-making.
The key is focusing on the quality of your reasoning, not just the results. By making your process transparent and learning from both successes and failures, you'll continually get better at making decisions that move you closer to your goals.