Explore Possible Solutions
Exploring possible solutions is a critical part of the decision-making process. It's where you imagine different possible futures and anticipate potential obstacles, rather than falling into the trap of magical thinking.
The way you come up with possible solutions is by imagining different ways the world could turn out. This is where you want to open your mind and consider a variety of options, not just the first one or two that come to mind.
One of the most common errors at this stage is avoiding the brutal realities. It's easy to fall into the trap of just focusing on the ideal scenario and ignoring potential problems. But that's a recipe for disaster.
Problems Don't Disappear by Themselves
We all face difficult problems in life and business. It's tempting to just stick our heads in the sand and hope they go away on their own. But the reality is, problems don't disappear by themselves. The future is shaped by the choices we make in the present, not by wishful thinking.
As the philosopher Søren Kierkegaard said, "Life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards." We have to take an active role in shaping our future, not just react to what happens.
The Stockdale Paradox, as described by Jim Collins, is a helpful principle here. It's about having the faith that you will ultimately prevail, combined with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality.
What Could Go Wrong?
Rather than just imagining the ideal outcome, you need to also consider what could go wrong. This is what I call the bad outcome principle: Don't just dream up the best-case scenario, also think through the things that could derail your plans.
Step 1
Spend time thoroughly imagining the potential obstacles and pitfalls. Leave nothing out - the more you can anticipate ahead of time, the better prepared you'll be.
Step 2
Apply the second-level thinking principle: Ask yourself, "And then what?" Think through the downstream consequences of each possible outcome, not just the immediate results.
For example, let's say you're considering going back to school to get an MBA. The obvious benefits are career advancement and a higher earning potential. But have you thought through the opportunity costs? How will your time commitments change? How will that impact your relationships and other responsibilities? The second-level thinking is key to making a truly informed decision.
Binary thinking, where you only consider two options, is a common trap to avoid. Force yourself to come up with at least three possible solutions to any problem - this prevents you from oversimplifying and helps you uncover creative alternatives.
Opportunity Costs
Another important consideration when exploring solutions is opportunity costs - what you're giving up by choosing one option over another. It's not just about the direct, visible costs, but also the hidden, indirect costs.
To assess opportunity costs, use the 3-lens principle:
- Compared with what? - What is the direct, visible cost of this choice?
- And then what? - What are the downstream, secondary impacts?
- At the expense of what? - What are you not able to do as a result of this choice?
This holistic view helps you see the full picture and make a more informed decision. Don't just focus on the immediate upsides - really think through what you're sacrificing as well.
By thoroughly exploring possible solutions, anticipating obstacles, and accounting for opportunity costs, you put yourself in the best position to make a sound judgment. It takes more work upfront, but it pays huge dividends in the long run.