Evaluate the Options
Once you've gathered information about your options, you need to evaluate them and pick the one most likely to make the future easier. There are two key components here: (1) defining the criteria for evaluating the options, and (2) applying those criteria effectively.
Defining the Criteria
Each problem has its own specific criteria for evaluating options. Some common ones include opportunity cost, return on investment (ROI), and likelihood of the desired outcome. But the specific criteria should be tailored to the problem at hand.
If you find yourself struggling to determine clear criteria, it's a sign that you either don't fully understand the problem, or you don't grasp the general features that good criteria should have. Those features include:
Clarity: The criteria should be simple, clear, and free of jargon. You should be able to explain them to a 12-year-old.
Goal Promotion: The criteria must favor only those options that achieve the desired goal. They can't be neutral.
Decisiveness: The criteria must point to exactly one preferred option. They can't result in a tie.
Criteria that fail to satisfy these conditions often lead to poor decision-making. When the criteria are too complicated, people have trouble applying them consistently. When they're ambiguous, people can interpret them however suits their desires in the moment.
The problem is, in many cases, purely negative criteria aren't decisive. They don't narrow the field down to one clear winner. As a result, people end up leaving the final choice up to chance or circumstance.
Defining the Most Important Thing
Not all criteria are equal. There may be dozens of variables to consider, but they're not all equally important. When you're clear on what's most important, evaluating options becomes much easier.
Many people struggle to pick out the single most important thing, afraid of being wrong. But without communicating the priority, you leave people guessing about what really matters to you. They end up deferring decisions back to you, when they should be empowered to make them.
To identify the most important thing, try this exercise:
Step 1
Write each criterion you're considering on a separate sticky note.
Step 2
Put the notes up on a wall and force yourself to compare each pair. Ask, "If I absolutely had to choose between only these two, which matters more?"
Step 3
Order the notes from most to least important, adding quantitative values if that helps clarify the priorities.
This process of making your criteria "battle" forces you to calibrate the shades of gray and get clear on what truly matters most. It may be uncomfortable, but it's essential for good decision-making.
Targeting Relevant Information
Once you've defined your criteria, the next step is to gather the information needed to evaluate the options. But remember:
Most information is irrelevant. Knowing what to ignore - separating the signal from the noise - is key to not wasting time.
If you don't know what you're looking for, you're unlikely to find it. Define your information needs upfront before starting your search.
Getting Accurate Information
It's also crucial to get high-fidelity information that's close to the source and unfiltered by others' biases. The person closest to the problem often has the most accurate data, even if they lack a broader perspective.
To ensure you get quality information:
Step 1
Consider running a small experiment to gather firsthand data, rather than relying on secondhand reports.
Step 2
Evaluate the motivations and incentives of your information sources. How might their perspective be shaped by their own interests?
Step 3
Ask questions that reveal principles and thought processes, not just details about a specific case. Get experts to explain their decision-making, not just their conclusions.
Distilling information through multiple filters inevitably leads to loss of quality and nuance. Go straight to the source whenever possible.
Experts vs. Imitators
When seeking expert advice, take the time to distinguish true experts from mere imitators. Look for signs like the ability to answer questions at a deeper level, adapt their vocabulary, acknowledge failures, and understand the limits of their expertise.
Imitators may seem knowledgeable, but their understanding is often shallow. Real experts are passionate about their field and eager to share their hard-earned insights.
By identifying and learning from true experts, you can dramatically improve the quality of your decision-making.
In the end, good judgment isn't about collecting the most information - it's about targeting the right information and evaluating it effectively against clear, priority-driven criteria. This is how you make decisions that consistently put you in a better position, no matter what the future holds.